Users can purchase shares of an outcome, like buying "Yes" or "No" shares of whether or not the Farm Bill will pass by June 30. 205 Pennsylvania Avenue SE. S. Per PredictIt’s no-action letter, PredictIt users cannot make more than $850 in any position. In the years following the 2014 No-Action letter, Victoria University, in conjunction with Aristotle International, would launch PredictIt, a site that became one of the most followed indicators of future political leanings in the United States, alongside sites like 538 and RealClearPolitics, which have made a name for themselves projection. Only moderators, or moderator-approved users, can create Prediction Tournaments. Resources. Many of PredictIt’s markets focus on political outcomes, like midterm results or the presidential race. Predictit's top competitors include Kalshi, Consensus Point, and Augur. International filed a lawsuit on Friday, Sept. PredictIt works by having users buy shares in a given candidate’s likelihood of reaching a certain outcome while running for office, somewhat similar to the stock market. Analyze any website or app. Loss. Discover the full list of predictit. These are just two examples of the larger narrative, which is that betting markets have continued to. To engage with some new technologies, you should try a project like sspaeti's 20 minute data engineering project. Some platforms like Metaculus and Hypermind use volunteers with prizes, others, like PredictIt and Smarkets are formal betting markets. Judge Stuart Duncan penned the majority opinion, with Judge James Ho. Lawyers for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted a new document to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on June 28, drawing the court’s attention to a recent Supreme Court decision. Interactive periodic table showing names, electrons, and oxidation states. Do not assume that Internet gaming sites are in compliance with the rules and regulations of every jurisdiction from which they accept players. share. The agency rejected a 2012 proposal by the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADE) on the basis that the proposed. com election betting odds by maxim lott and john stossel live. PredictIt, a market that built its name by letting Americans bet on who will be elected to Congress or the next president, has lost its legal authority to. Of course, spoofing requires spending money to buy shares, with no guarantee of profit, but this can be a small price to pay for this supposed. In that case, our account is credited with the lowest such profit. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. With PredictIt. 31. org — LessWrong [ Question ] Recommendation for a good international event betting site. Unlike the prices in. Copy Markdown Copy reStructuredText. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. Join PredictIt today and test your political savvy. Fortunately, they made an exception for PredictIt. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). . A maximum of $850 in betting per person per contract ( not per market) A substantial house cut of 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. On PredictIt, the most popular prediction market platform, over 90 million shares (valued from $0. electoral-vote. Predictit 's alternatives and competitors. It sounds like fun, but is it all sunshine and roses? We have the answers in our. Our Customers. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has revoked a letter it sent last year to PredictIt organizers that vacated its. PredictIt To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. Follow PredictZ. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. PredictIt is operating under an academic exemption, too, but it has had to fight to retain it. What that meant, essentially, is the CFTC allowed. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar. org Brags and Beats. PredictIt. by Feb. 9% higher probability on PredictIt than FiveThirtyEight. I am literally at risk for $44 in the general election market, but that does not allow me to continue to trade. Federal regulators want to kill Predictit, the website that lets you bet on political outcomes. Do you think your real competition will come from new sites or existing ones like PredictIt? Cardenas: PredictIt took the same legal approach as Intrade, except they obtained a letter of “No. Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to justify the forced wind down in. PredictIt is an online Other site. Jennings revealed that the election event has. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 24% BNBJust like exchanges, prediction markets trade assets–except it’s not stocks or crypto being traded, but outcomes. The top traffic source to marginalrevolution. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites like PredictIt. The Vegas bookmakers do not set lines to equalize betting on both side of a wager & in many cases it isn’t possible to do so, just look at the Mattress Mack World. frameor tibble, as returned by all_markets() or single_market. PredictIt had Biden leading overall at 68 cents to Trump. A project of Aristotle, a data company, and the Victoria University of Wellington. High fees on profits and withdrawals. Free Tools. The CFTC filed a 70-page brief Tuesday arguing against PredictIt's appeal, saying the case is meritless for several reasons. 44 billion between 2022 and 2027, according to Technavio's latest market research report. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Register Now. What Was PredictIt?The CFTC is expected to render a decision Friday on whether or not Kalshi can offer election-based prediction contracts. ”. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. PredictIt’s non-profit status has allowed it to operate legally by obtaining a no-action letter from the CFTC, the U. It’s not like PredictIt is happy about this. This prevents a handful of wealthy individuals from putting down thousands of. Even if you see a coupon code box at the PredictIt checkout, there are several reasons why you won't always find a working discount. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. The first problem: prediction market mechanics are. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. More than 19 million shares were traded on the House speaker question leading up to McCarthy’s ultimate ascension this. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minuteIn bet-capped places like predictit, this can make equilibrium that are different from optimal, because there are non-monetary incentives at work. com. com is Direct traffic, driving 83. PredictItPredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research. is technically illegal but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has generally laid off sites like PredictIt that function as “ trading markets . It's a. It reads:PredictIt, a nonprofit exchange that limits speculation to $850 per event, is the most accessible site for Americans. datatable). Accepts American customers. PredictIt injunction kept political betting site open The Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fired back last week in an appeal proceeding at light speed over whether the popular election betting prediction site PredictIt will close, at least temporarily, on February 15 at 11:59 PM. PredictIt and Victoria University use the results from the market for statistical analysis, market theory, and trader psychology, and as supporting data for research papers and analyses. Steve Bittenbender. Compare your predictions with other traders and see how the market reacts to news and events. Ways to buyJOHN ARISTOTLE PHILLIPS: It's like a stock market, but for politics. You can buy and sell shares of real-world events and earn money if your predictions are correct. Leverage your professional network, and get hired. PredictIt essentially functions similar to a stock market. 50, our maximum risk is actually $0. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. PredictItPredictIt tax treatment. I am using turbotax to prepare my taxes, and after entering it into the proper section, it wants to list it as business income (schedule c). 12 for Democrats to win, . Texas is pertinent to its attempts to get the court to dismiss the PredictIt. 6. Augur is working but last time I checked transaction fees were pretty high, so volume/liquidity was very small, it should improve in the near future especially if Ethereum transition to PoS (I also plan to start trading on Augur). org. it looks like we could be in for an election week, or perhaps even longer,” he added. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. 15, 2023 due to the government rescinding a No-Action Letter, which formed the basis for it to operate legally. It operates on a much smaller scale, however. The. In addition, you can join various forums to have discussions with like-minded folks. marginalrevolution. 2% chance of flipping the Senate on Oddschecker. S. So, bettors could lose a major election betting market after the 2022 midterms. 2,678Posts. com is the website with the highest similarity score to predictit. Trump is back on top in PredictIt's Republican nomination. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. A world-leading political predictions market led by a New Zealand university is set to close its doors after American regulators concluded it was breaching its terms of operation. org Brags and Beats. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. No. PredictIt has long been cited as one of the more accurate predictors of. However, PredictIt is expected to liquidate its event contracts by February 15, 2023. I think you would be better off building something on top of Augur. [3] The company's office is located in Washington, D. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam shared insights on the future of regulated prediction markets like Kalshi during a recent panel discussion. 2023Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The betting odds website "PredictIt" is a joke (Original post) Talking Tom: Mar 2019: OP: Betting markets have proven accuracy. PredictIt is hoping its 2024 election night goes much smoother than it did on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Drill down into the main traffic drivers in each channel below. Learn how PredictIt works, how to join the community, and how to access the latest news, analysis, and insights from PredictIt's experts and partners. S. Shares can be. There are a few places where you can "place bets" or "buy shares" in current events such as electoral results, polling, Supreme Court decisions, etc…Other prediction markets have faced similar regulatory scrutiny. Have 3 partnerships in the year following launch of the company. That leaves the markets vulnerable to small shocks that can result in small profits. track the election with a red/blue map of the us updated daily using the latest state polls. The political betting site PredictIt places his odds of being elected president in 2024, expressed as a share price, at 23 cents, slightly below Trump’s and well below Biden’s, but far above. 5. See how Predictit compares to similar products. 99 per share. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. A federal court is allowing PredictIt to keep its political futures markets online while it pursues litigation against a federal agency trying to shut the site down. Predictit - Arizona Senate Race. 2: The media pundits. By Danny Funt. Just as companies like Robinhood and DraftKings have capitalized on the gamification of day trading and dearth of entertainment while millions found themselves stuck at home and in need of a distraction from the pandemic, PredictIt has benefited from an unprecedented election cycle. ” PredictIt, the political. 4: Professional election forecasters. After the market resolves, redeem your winning shares for $1 each. 07:13. org)Wrapper function to apply HTML formatting to ’PredictIt’ market data. In Trump's first year in office, PredictIt's population of traders has grown to 80,000 from 50,000 as the White House deals political junkies a litany of new policy, personnel and, yes, Twitter. Additionally, the site charges a 5% fee to withdraw money. org - Top 45 predictit. S. [laughter] Alright, so PredictIt is what’s called a prediction market. C. US President Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Tracker. track the election with a red/blue map of the us updated daily using the latest state polls. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. PredictIt. The PredictIt plaintiff lawyers argued that fairness and the Administrative Procedure Act require reasoned decision-making and a detailed explanation before ordering the market to close. Trump is back on top in PredictIt's Republican nomination. Preprocess data and chose optimal parameters of prediction. Link Copied! The US government is trying to shut down PredictIt, a website that allows gambling on US elections. Most sports betting sites offer lucrative promos to their customers such as no deposit bonus and so does PredictIt. Prediction markets like PredictIt and Futuur reflect an additional layer of abstraction on top of publicly available data such as the polls analysis by FiveThirtyEight. Join PredictIt today. After betting big on the past two presidential. Gambling platform PredictIt has been told to shut up shop by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for failure to comply with regulations. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. PredictItIn the 2014 PredictIt approval letter, 3 the CFTC analyzed the applicant’s facts and circumstances and based approval on conditions such as capping investment and trading volumes, being operated. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Capping. It seems like PredictIt's 10% effectively moves the point at which it isn't worth it to correct the inefficiency further out from equilibrium than in the case of free trades. Global Traffic Rank. The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1. org competitors and alternatives. Two of the sites that Election Betting Odds pulls from — Betfair and Smarkets — showed DeSantis holding a substantial lead over Trump, with the Florida governor coming in at 27 percent to 27. And the best part? The community is made up of hilarious, quirky individuals just like us! So, in my shilling and humble opinion, Polkamarkets trumps Kalshi any day 😜 Reply reply itztomlandlord • Kalshi and PredictIt are both great platforms for participating in prediction. When/if PredictIt's odds become more efficient and get close to 100%, this site's main page will include the odds. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Advertisement Harry Crane is a professor of statistics at Rutgers. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PredictIt Alternatives TradeFair. When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. Find Predictit's competitors, compare Predictit's features and pricing vs. What I don't like about PredictIt is that they charge 5% on withdrawals plus other. 15. NEW. PredictIt was told to shutter in the U. PredictIt was told to shutter in the U. org. You can buy and sell shares of candidates and parties, and earn money if your predictions are correct. 1. org) submitted 1 year ago by gwern to r/slatestarcodex. We do this to. trustworthiness, child safety measures, traffic rank, similar websites, server location, WHOIS data, and more. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Deposit $80 when you open your account and PredictIt will deposit an additional $80. November 14, 2022. Betting Prediction Markets Practical. One example is BetFair, which is predominantly for sports betting. In Virginia, it had Youngkin up to 60% when the media was still calling it tossup to tilt D. They’re called betting exchanges. The size of bets is capped too, at $850 per. 24 Tuesday, with over half of that drop coming in the past week, amid a bizarre and. On the 2022 campaign trail he once joked in. A maximum of 5,000 people in one market. Visit PredictIt Insight to learn from the wisdom of the crowd and make smarter bets on the future. PredictItPredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. ; Users on the site place "yes" or "no" bets on popular political predictions, like President. S. To continue operations until Feb. Donald Trump is +150, and Michelle Obama is +1600. It captured GOP strength in key states that almost all mainstream pollsters. PredictItHeadquarters Location. High fees on profits and withdrawals. [+] Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) fill orders shortly before the close of trading on October 28, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. Anything I write here is my opinion and not that of my employer. Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans. On Tuesday evening, I logged on to PredictIt, America’s favorite political-betting site, to watch the Election Night chaos. Find Predictit's. District Court for the Western District of Texas asking the Commodity. PredictIt market in Minnesota See also: PredictIt markets in the 2020 presidential election What is a PredictIt market?. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Lemmy. S. If the predicted outcome does not take place, the no shares are. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. com at 2012-04-02T14:30:48Z (11 Years, 7 Days ago) , expired at 2025-04-02T14:30:48Z (1 Year, 357 Days left). Sites similar to predictit. Feb/11/2023. Like Wright in Texas, Carey has made a significant effort to play up his connections to Trump, and his endorsement. PredictIt provides many markets with futures contracts linked to political issues, ranging from ongoing policy outcomes to political elections. PredictIt, several of its traders and academic users, and technology provider Aristotle International have filed a lawsuit seeking to block the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. USBets: “PredictIt users are not taking the forced cessation of their political prediction market lying down, as some of the site’s traders and academic users and its market technology provider Aristotle International filed a federal lawsuit Friday against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 99 per share. New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. predictions_1 = predictit. He’d look for anything weird—usually something like suspiciously high odds that a Democrat would be indicted. That’s the draw of a site called PredictIt, where users like Jon Kimball can place live bets on the results of elections. Consequential issues,. 01 to $0. Below is a list of prediction market platforms and implementations that may be useful for futures studies. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Like all prediction markets, traditional or otherwise, the PredictIt shows Biden as the favorite to win. The other is a similar exchange from the University of Iowa, which has been active since the mid-1990s. , a U. PredictIt is a platform where you can trade shares on the most predicted political events and outcomes. Pricing. Accepts American customers. The system delivers both the crowd’s prediction and, like the Delphi technique, allows forecasters to consider their own thinking in the light of other. New research shows that the best way to improve. Directory of sites Login Contact Support. These assets trade between 0% and 100%, represented by $0 to $1. That's exactly correct. As of January 3, 11. It had Haley Steven’s at well over 90 when the media was oddly shy about prognosticating who was favored. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. There are two problems here. Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit. The models for PredictIt and PolyMarket differ significantly from overseas betting on politics. e. 01 to $0. S. Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. Election odds currently have Joe Biden at +138. The PredictIt exchange is similar to a stock exchange, where traders can buy or sell up until the event in question – such as the 2024 presidential election – concludes. Analyze websites like predictit. PredictIt, the political gambling website, may get shut down - The Washington Post This site bet big on political gambling. ) are legal. The CFTC realized that University of Victoria Wellington had turned this supposed "small scale educational" venture into a for-profit betting site. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. The firm has operated in the U. Although numerous bookmakers. So the site will only charge us $0. Visualize trends, 3D orbitals, isotopes, and mix compounds. A screen capture of PredictIt. S. ) are legal. A screen capture of PredictIt. A federal court is allowing PredictIt to keep its political futures markets online while it pursues litigation against a federal agency trying to shut the site down. Frontpage. com (202) 903-4221 The agency said the university had agreed PredictIt would be operated by itself or its professors, but Aristotle Inc. Touch upon this story Remark In 2016, Jason Pipkin was working in a biology lab at Brandeis College, authoring papers with titles akin to “Mapping the thoughts of a fly,” when he first heard of PredictIt. [1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington [2] with support from Aristotle, Inc. BetMoose. . # 1. Yale astrophysicist Greg Laughlin launched the site a year ago with physicist Anthony Aguirre of the University of California-Santa Cruz and their former postdoc Max Wainwright. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt’s market analysts. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. PredictItBy Jacob Stern. There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. 2024 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any. 202-543-8345. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. org Competitors. It’s like a stock market where you buy and sell $1 winner- take- all shares, where two people…Headquarters Location. You can find analysis on topics such as the 2020 election, the Supreme Court, the coronavirus, and more. by Feb. CryptoFind out everything you need to know about PredictIt before you play. With sports betting continuing to expand across the country, many Americans were surprised. Join the community of more than 100,000 traders and analysts and get insights from PredictIt's. Ensure all the packages you're using are healthy and well-maintained. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. provider of data processing and verification services. On US and cryptocurrency sites, such as PredictIt and Polymarket which style themselves as “prediction markets”, the shift came earlier still. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites. 00-0. It didn't seem right that online politics gambling counts as a business, so what is the appropriate. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Covering over 700 leagues. Though PredictIt comes across as quiz show meets Caesars Palace sportsbook, the five-year-old site doesn’t have bookies and oddsmakers like the sports gambling parlors that populate Las Vegas or. . other political & government brands and stores. Check your requirements. To put it simply, PredictIt allows customers to trade “yes” and “no” shares on the outcomes of future political events at prices ranging from $0. 3: Polls. “This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in the insights they provide. PredictIt Market Probabilities. If the outcome takes place, the yes shares are redeemed for $1 and the no shares expire worthless. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic keywords, search rankings, authority, and much more. com. Gov. (Christopher. Your global no limit betting exchange. “Florida legislator asks if a site like @PredictIt would be illegal in the state under Compact. Buy Bitcoin in Europe. Saved Stories. Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. Kalshi and PredictIt are both great platforms for participating in prediction markets, each with their own unique strengths and weaknesses. 2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. - GitHub - Malachov/predictit: Library/framework for making predictions. The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. 5 mBTC withdrawal fee) API: A project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt has been established to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events. 65 at PredictIt. PredictIt to Halt Trading in February After Regulator Pulls ‘No-Action’ Letter. Well, because of the Sandwich bot issue, I couldn't be bothered to figure out how to bridge funds & LP via a relayer as some roundabout way to actually place bets (which was an intermediate way the team found to avoid the bots, but wasn't exactly the best UI) while my crypto experience extended to having some play-funds on Aave & more reading than using in general. PredictIt also offers political analysis and insights from its experts and community. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. GOP 2024 presidential nominee. 5M shares traded. Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. Automatically choose best models (ARIMA,. ” PredictIt lets everyone see what everyday Americans, rather than just “experts,” think about future political events, without filtering those opinions through potentially biased pollsters. The traders on prediction markets like PredictIt buy the shares with real money, essentially. I've never done sports betting before, but want to make a bet on one of the PredictIt politics elections (I view this as a way of hedging. Touch upon this story Remark In 2016, Jason Pipkin was working in a biology lab at Brandeis College, authoring papers with titles corresponding to “Mapping the thoughts of a fly,” when he first heard of PredictIt. . PolyMarket: . In order to enable researchers to take advantage of the opportunities presented by prediction markets, we make our data available to the academic community at no cost. PredictIt is a stock market-style prediction platform that allows users to “buy” and “sell” shares in events, with the value of their shares determined by the likelihood of the event occurring. Current as of Map Timestamp. hide. 3 million shares traded on Wednesday morning, according to PredictIt. It’s important to keep in mind that PredictIt acts within a grey area; similar to offshore sportsbooks. Our Data. 8 million shares were traded on PredictIt for the speaker contest, jumping to 12. Looking for brands like Predictit? We've researched the 8 top alternatives to Predictit and summarized the best options here in this Predictit competitors grid. Login. You can explore the latest trends, analysis, and commentary on various topics, such as Trump's influence, the 2020 election, and more. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A share on PredictIt settles at $1 if the listed event comes to pass and $0 if it doesn’t, and its price fluctuates somewhere in the middle meanwhile. We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa.